Episode 136: Training and Racing in the Heat, Finding Your Race Pace, and Handling Uncontrollables
In this week’s episode, we dive deep into one topic that’s affecting nearly every endurance athlete right now: heat. We discuss how hot and humid conditions change pacing, power, heart rate, fueling, hydration, and overall expectations for both training and racing. We share practical strategies for modifying workouts, recognizing when heat is becoming a safety issue, and adapting your mindset when fitness doesn’t show up the way you expected on race day. We also explore race-day unpredictability, why learning to embrace chaos can make you a better competitor, how to estimate realistic swim, bike, and run pacing, and why practicing adaptability may be one of the most valuable race skills you can develop. Plus, we share hydration recommendations, electrolyte strategies, and a few gear picks for surviving summer training. Check it out!
Training and Racing in the Heat
Dropping data such as pace/power and going by HR; or dropping data altogether and going by feel
In heat, it is especially important to do intervals in a range of effort/watts. In extreme heat/humidity, don’t do any intervals. Your only job is to not ruin the rest of your day/week, even month/season. Heat stroke is very real and can sneak up on you.
Key indicators: sweat pooling on your arms / legs. This means you have no evaporative cooling, your main source of heat management. This is a MASSIVE red flag and it should ALWAYS lead you to manage your effort with extreme care. You may not feel like you are getting hot especially if you are on the bike because the wind is providing a false sense of convective cooling. (Convective cooling is not effective on hot tarmac.) If this happens in a race/training, switch your brain from race mode to health mode.
How much should I train in the heat?
How do I manage the situation once I realize I’m in a heat danger zone?
Why do I get a headache / feel tired?
Preload with one water bottle with electrolytes before and one after.
Preparing Better for Racing
Not all races can be specifically trained for. Some variables — like a swim course thick with weeds (Harvest Triathlon) — are true X-factors. We're not suggesting you throw yourself into a weed bed during practice! (One new triathlete thought the weeds were just part of a triathlon so she wasn’t really bothered by them!)
At that same race, the course had minimal elevation gain but was loaded with rolling hills, and that relentless up-and-down made the course far more demanding than it looked on paper. The effect wasn't just physical — it was mental. (And if you come out of the swim at HR 175 and try to blast on the bike, even a sprint bike course, any little hill will feel like a mountain.)
Because this was an unfamiliar stimulus, athletes felt like they were struggling when, in reality, they were performing right in line with everyone else on the course.
This is a common and easy mental trap: you start telling yourself a story that you're the one having a hard time, that everyone else is fine, that something is wrong with you. In truth, the person next to you is thinking the exact same thing.
So what can you do about it?
The answer isn't to replicate every possible race scenario. It's to consistently put yourself in new situations so that encountering the unfamiliar becomes familiar in itself. Get comfortable being uncomfortable. Some simple ways to do that:
Swim at a different pond or lake
Bike a new loop you've never ridden
Ride with a group instead of solo
Run with a group
Enter a local 5K or sprint tri.
Schedule workouts for late morning or midday if your race will be happening at that time of day
The goal is to create a new stimulus — new terrain, new social dynamics, new conditions — that gradually expands your comfort zone, sharpens your skills, and builds your situational awareness. We've talked about this before as creating a little chaos to train your nervous system.
You won't be able to replicate every situation you'll face on race day. But the more you've practiced adapting, the better equipped you'll be to process new information and new demands when they show up — and they will.
How to Find Your Race Pace
This is the million dollar question as we head into race day and the question I get asked about the most. There are so many factors at play on race day so the answer is not usually a straight line. But there are some methods we can use that will get you in the ballpark and help set expectations.
SWIM
In the pool, swim 5 x 100 at your best effort, trying to average them within a narrow range with 10" rest. Note the average time for these 5 x 100s.
Then swim another 5 x 100 on 10" rest, adding ~5" to the average of your first set. Note the average for this second set.
Take the average of the second 5 x 100s and add:
10" per 100 if you swim 3x or more per week
20" per 100 if you swim less than 3x per week
This will get you in the ballpark of your expected pace per 100 on race day.
One note on meters vs. yards: most race results are reported in meters, which is a longer distance than yards. A simple way to think about it — a 25-meter pool requires about 2 extra strokes compared to a 25-yard pool.
BIKE
Target effort by race distance:
Sprint: ~90% FTP, 8-9/10 RPE
OLY: 85-90% of FTP, 7-8/10 RPE
HIM: 75-85% of FTP, 6-7/10 RPE
IM: 65-75% of FTP, 5-6/10 RPE
You can use a tool like Best Bike Split to refine your projected time.
A few things to keep in mind:
It's common to ride 1–3 mph faster on race day than in training. Race-day conditions, crowd energy, and taper all contribute. Magic does happen on the bike.
Year-to-year bike splits are hard to compare directly. Wind, heat, humidity, road surface, equipment, and aero position can all make the same course ride very differently — even on back-to-back days.
Effort is what you control. And reducing your frontal drag is where your biggest speed gains will come from.
RUN
Distance / Target Pace Off the Bike
Sprint: Threshold pace or better
Olympic: Threshold pace (experienced runners) or add 15–30"/mile
Half Ironman: 90–95% of threshold pace; 80–90% if it's your first HIM or very hot
Ironman: 75–80% of threshold pace (experienced runners with strong bike fitness)
Example — using a 7:45/mile threshold pace:
Olympic/HIM: Could target somewhere in the 8:00–8:15/mile range off the bike
Half Ironman finish time: Roughly 1:48–1:53 for 13.1 miles
Ironman finish time: Roughly 4:17–4:34 for 26.2 miles (9:48–10:27/mile)
A few reminders on the run:
Heat and humidity have a massive effect. Don't underestimate it.
Your Race Sim weekends are your best data point for off-the-bike run pace — use them.
For Ironman especially, be honest with yourself: how do you really feel after 112 miles on the bike? Superior bike fitness means a 100-mile ride isn't a huge ask of your body. If it is, build in more cushion.
Electrolyte Product Guide
With the advent of hot weather, here’s my personal electrolyte products
For every day use: PH Tabs: 500 or 1000
For on the bike: LMNT - 1000 mg of sodium per bottle.
They have many flavors and I make sure I have a different flavor in each water bottle and carry a couple different flavors on long rides. I find that packet convenience is the easiest way to keep on top of electrolytes on the go.
Before and sometimes after big rides, I try to drink a water bottle of LMNT or use PH 500/1000/1500 tabs.
I also have Scratch Electrolyte that you can add to any bottle. It’s unflavored so that might appeal to some and you can dose out what works for you. (I find 1000 mg sodium per hour works well for most athletes.)
For on the run:
Also some folks have salt pills for the run. I recommend keeping some of those around in your arsenal.
SaltStick Electrolyte Capsules
Don't make bike fit changes within 2–3 weeks of your "A" race
Any change — even a small one, as little as a few millimeters — has a physical cost that can take up to two weeks to fully absorb. This includes seat height and angle.
If you're experiencing bike discomfort, get a professional bike fit well in advance. Don't try to DIY it — you'll often make things worse.
If you absolutely must adjust something: Mark your current position with a marker and/or tape before touching anything. Not recommended, but at minimum have an indicator to get back to your original setting.
How bad can it be?
If you gave me a choice between you staying out all night partying with your friends the night before the race or moving your bike seat the day before — I'd take the party. Every. Single. Time.
Challenge or Resource of the Week
Katie: Actually log the mileage of your run shoes and order new ones when you are getting close to 200
Jim: Running Writings Heat Adjust Pace Calculator and bonus content at the bottom of the page: The JAHI in visual chart form! & Drink one more bottle of electrolytes than you are drinking now. I’m trying to drink one an hour before my mid-day rides and sometimes another one in the early evening. I’ve never met an overhydrated endurance athlete, especially this time of year.
Gear Pick of the Week
Katie: Hoka Rocket X3!
Jim: LMNT Lemonade Salt